The Senate’s Obamacare Nightmare

CNN, Fox News, below the fold on A1 of today’s Wall Street Journal, all reporting growing concern this morning among Senate Republicans that the latest attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, may be doomed.

Rand Paul and John McCain are no votes. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins have reservations. Ted Cruz doesn’t back the bill “right now,” according to Fox News.

Republicans, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in particular, are in a tough spot.

Fail to repeal Obamacare and there’s backlash from the base. Pass some kind of ham-fisted half measure, and chaos sets in.

Where will pre-existing conditions fall? What about insurance rates for seniors? Do states have the infrastructure to handle the changes Republicans want?

President Trump appears to have moved on. This weekend the President said his “primary focus” was tax cuts.

The major insurer stocks are the question mark. One would think the chaos has already hit them. Here’s a 6-month chart for UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH):

UNH chart

Anthem (NYSE: ANTM), Aetna (NYSE: AET), Cigna (NYSE: CI), the story’s pretty much the same industry-wide.

The major insurers figured out Obamacare. They made money. They always make money.

Here’s 4-years of Cigna (NYSE: CI):

CI chart

Was it medical innovation? The triumph of enterprise over politics? A debt-fueled market that levitated all stocks higher despite a socialist conspiracy?

In the end, Mitch McConnell and company have a first order mess on their hands. The safe money says this bill doesn’t pass. There’s no soap opera quite like Washington D.C.

To the markets…

Market Rundown for Monday, September 25

S&P 500 Futures are flat this morning at 2,498.

Oil’s up $0.48 at $51.14. Gold off just a tick at $1,297.

Bitcoin’s at $3,757.

Apple stock slid almost 1% more on Friday, closing at $151.89. It’s off $1.30 or 0.85% more at writing, set to open at $150.60.

And in case you missed it, Uber recently lost its license to operate in London.

Assuming Uber decides to IPO, would you be a buyer? Some estimates have it at a $70 billion valuation.

Talk to you again on Wednesday.

For the Rundown,

Aaron Gentzler

Aaron Gentzler

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Aaron Gentzler

Aaron Gentzler is the publisher of Seven Figure Publishing. He is also the editor of The Rundown. Aaron’s been with Agora Financial/Seven Figure Publishing for 13 years. He's been covering technology and markets for over a decade.

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