Dangerous Minds

Another opinion on the value of a schoolhouse education:

“I was fortunate enough to have taught at a rural school. It was such an honor to be able to educate and have all ages together and watch them interact with each other. They truly did achieve a sense of community.

“As a teacher I also had incredible support from parents, administration and other teachers. Teachers were valued and respected. If a student was experiencing a hard time, a call to the parents helped  in most instances because we were all able to work together and bring about solutions that were in the pupil’s best interest. 

“As Seniors, one of the classes (32 in number) earned close to $500,000 in scholarships!”

In defense of good teachers everywhere:

“Being a retired Canadian elementary school teacher and administrator, I would like to point out that (in general) teachers work long, hard hours at a job that can be very stressful at times.

“What also is not widely known is that teachers often use their own money to help out needy students or to provide ‘extras’.

“Having travelled a lot in the USA, I have often been surprised by how poorly the public school system is funded in many areas and how poorly teachers are often paid, with minimum benefits.

“Up here, there are very few private schools since public education is well supported and rates high in world rankings.

“Public education is a critical social investment for its economic and democratic future.”

To the reader’s point above, I think we can all agree educated citizens, generally, make good citizens. Most taxpayers aren’t opposed to contributing to that end.

If you could cut something from the federal/state budget to contribute more to public education, what would you cut?

Send your opinions to, TheRundownFeedback@SevenFigurePublishing.com.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, December 12, 2018:

Market Curves and Crosses

You’ve probably read the headlines this week. One scary-sounding market indicator after another: the S&P 500’s “death cross” and a yield curve inversion.

First, let’s break down the S&P 500’s “death cross.” This chart pattern happens when the S&P 500 Index’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. And both moving averages are sliding at the same time.

This pattern showed up on charts Friday for the first time since April, 2016. “Many believe the cross marks the point where a shorter-term decline graduates to a longer-term downtrend,” MarketWatch says.

So there’s that.

Next, we take a look at the inversion of the yield curve — when short-term, 2-yr U.S. treasury bonds are yielding more interest than long-term, 10-yr U.S. treasury bonds.

Yep, that happened last week, too. So wonks who live and die by charts are freaking out, saying the word that shall not be spoken. R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N.

So how likely are investors trudging into recession territory?

chart

The chart shows a 9% probability of the bull market taking a break within the next 6 months. So the chances right now are marginal.

Wondering about the immediate danger indicated by the yield curve inversion?

chart

The months between the first yield curve inversion and the start of a recession vary widely but the average is 17 months.

While recession is top of mind for many investors right now and it’s absolutely appropriate to pay attention to indicators, it’s most important to have a financial plan going into 2019 — bull or bear market.

Market Rundown for Wed. December 12, 2018

S&P 500 futures are up 31 points to 2,667.40.

Oil is up — meh — 65 cents to $52.30 a barrel.

Gold is up $3.40 to $1,250.60 per ounce.

Bitcoin’s even up — $65.84 to $3,466.86.

Have a good day. We’ll talk tomorrow.

For the Rundown,

Aaron Gentzler

Aaron Gentzler

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Aaron Gentzler

Aaron Gentzler is the publisher of Seven Figure Publishing. He is also the editor of The Rundown. Aaron’s been with Agora Financial/Seven Figure Publishing for 13 years. He's been covering technology and markets for over a decade.

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