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Forecasting Gold and Stocks for 2019

On Canadian healthcare, from a reader who spent 20 years in Canada:

“It really bothers me that this myth about the Canadian healthcare system keeps getting new life.

The American system leaves much to be desired. The Canadian system could also use some improvement but nowhere near what the U.S. system could use.”

On the overall quality of healthcare in America:

“There is no question we have the best healthcare in the world… the problem is government involvement.

All the doctors I visit and talk with are bogged down with government required paperwork. This is a major reason for higher costs and less face time with your doctor.”

And on Congress:

“Congress better start listening to the people back home and vote accordingly. How about doing what is right for our country. This should not be Democrat vs. Republican.”

Also, it appears cutting salaries in Congress is a wildly popular idea. A wave of letters over the holiday celebrating the idea.

Apart from salaries, and apart from the ultimate power of the voting booth, how do you propose to keep Congress focused on the needs of those they represent?

Your Rundown for Wednesday, December 26, 2018:

Gold and Stocks in 2019

Monday had to set the world record for ugliest half-day trading session in history.

If that was the start of the “Santa Claus Rally”… ugh.

Now, it’s time to go on record – gold’s up – perhaps significantly, in 2019.

Stocks? Good question.

It’s tempting to say throw in the towel and get really defensive for the year ahead.

It’s tempting to declare 2019 a year of massive adjustment. It’s tempting to say 2019 is the year we fully and finally pay the piper for years of quantitative easing (QE) policy which forced money into the market.

2019 could be a year of profound quantitative tightening (QT) which finally restores balance to interest rates and ends an unprecedented era of cheap, even free money.

OR… the bull returns from death’s door, earnings stay strong, aggressive buybacks continue, and the Dow’s back over 26,500 before Easter.

One of those scenarios seems more likely than the other, but we’re doing our best to avoid recency bias here.

Keep this in mind. The economy and the stock market are two different things. Attempts to speak about them as if they were one and the same are dangerous.

We’ll have more on stocks and what 2019 could bring in the days ahead.

Today, let’s keep it easy. What does gold do in 2019? Gold goes up.

The last 30 days of gold:

chart

With higher volatility, a risk-off mentality taking hold, stocks in freefall one day and big bounces the next, an uncertain interest rate environment, wildcards in Washington, a Democratic House… China… the border… Mueller…

… 2019 could turn out to be gold’s best year in decades.

Short story: The more uncertain and volatile the markets, the more attention gold draws.

Market Rundown for Wed. December 26, 2018

At writing, the S&P 500 is up 1.21% at 2,379.

Oil’s at $44.41. Chances we see $100 oil in 2019? Slim to none. $75 oil? Maybe.

Gold is up $6.40 at $1,278.

Bitcoin’s at $3,758, down $76.70.

We hope you’re enjoying the holiday week. We’ll catch up again tomorrow…

For the Rundown,

Aaron Gentzler

Aaron Gentzler

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Aaron Gentzler is the publisher of Seven Figure Publishing. He is also the editor of The Rundown. Aaron’s been with Agora Financial/Seven Figure Publishing for 13 years. He's been covering technology and markets for over a decade.

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