Quick Takes on Ominous Signs
More on moving…
“My rental single-family home in Dallas County has had its property taxes quadruple in 5 years.
Y’all might want to reconsider moving to Texas, as your ‘Texas Cowgirl’ reader suggested.”
We questioned some ominous signs yesterday, including highest-ever consumer debt, online holiday sales and S&P 500 index. A reader predicts…
“Imminent collapse. Super rich — politicians and corporations — will keep gutting the nonexistent middle class. House of cards.”
Another has the opposite opinion:
“No slowdown in sight. Should be some great bargains with the smaller options as well as bargains with targeted very low-cost winners.
“The winners are there just watch the trends and graphs very closely.
“May require close vigil to catch the mini-moves. In and out.”
We’ll share more of your opinions tomorrow.
Your Rundown for Wednesday, October 30, 2019:
“Strong Consumer, Weak Business”
Bloomberg says: “A resilient American consumer helped the U.S. economy expand more than forecast in the third quarter, assuaging concerns for now of a more pervasive slowdown tied to weakening business investment and faltering export markets.”
This in response to data released by the Commerce Department this morning that indicates the U.S. GDP for the third quarter of the year is a better-than-expected 1.9% — still down from 2% last quarter.
(Just in passing, the gross domestic product is comprised of four factors: personal consumption, business investment, government spending and net exports. So it’s the personal consumption category that wins this day this quarter.)
It’s the business investment category that’s dropped off most dramatically; in fact, the worst since late 2015.
“It’s the same theme: Strong consumer, weak business,” says Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
“The question is, which wins out? We lean toward the latter. We think that actually the weakness in business will be more persistent and that ultimately the consumer will soften up.”
So the U.S. GDP rests on the shoulders of consumers. But for how long?
Market Rundown for Wed. October 30, 2019
S&P 500 futures are up 2 points to 3,038.
Oil’s at a standstill at $55.52 per barrel.
Gold is up $2.20 per ounce to $1,492.90.
Bitcoin’s down 3% to $9,148.29.
Have a good day. We’ll talk tomorrow.
For the Rundown,